The Power of Self Interest

While having dinner with a close friend who is a young CEO running his first company in New York, an interesting topic came up.  My friend asked, “What do you find is effective, when reaching out to people you don’t know to take your calls, meet with you, or otherwise be helpful?”

What followed was a somewhat philosophical discussion that ranged from good old fashioned sales tactics to ruminations on human psychology and motivators of human behavior.  I was reminded of a quote from Arthur Schopenhauer, an 18th century German philosopher who, according to Wikipedia, was (perhaps aptly) “known for his pessimism”:

“Most men are so thoroughly subjective that nothing really interests them but themselves. They always think of their own case as soon as ever any remark is made, and their whole attention is engrossed and absorbed by the merest chance reference to anything which affects them personally, be it never so remote.”

Now, just to be clear, I think old Arthur may have been a little jaded.   However, I do believe that most people are more inclined to align themselves with others when they feel there is something in it for them.  That ‘something’ could include: positive reputational benefits, recognition, monetary gain, status, power, enhanced potential for payoffs in the future, expectation of reciprocity, or even the intrinsic “feel good” utility that motivates philanthropists.  Differently stated, “incentive alignment” is a key tenet of the investment business and something I will revisit in greater detail, as it pertains to deal sourcing, structuring, and investor-management relationships, in future blog posts.

I think 17th century French moralist Jean de La Bruyère had it right when he said:  “The shortest and best way to make your fortune is to let people see clearly that it is in their interests to promote yours.” 

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What Do Investors Look For in Management Teams?

I recently participated on a panel in the 2011 US-Israel Venture Summit in New York City.  This is the fourth consecutive year where I have spoken at this summit, which is amongst the premier global forums for leading Israeli companies to interact with North American investors. One of the more common questions posed to me by CEOs this year was, “What are Investors looking for in management teams?”

In my experience, the management team constitutes the single most important determinant of investment outcomes.  I have seen great teams successfully pivot challenging businesses into successful outcomes and, unfortunately, I have also witnessed weak management teams undercapitalize upon unbelievable opportunities. Most investors spend a lot of time on the “people” aspect of a deal and invest an inordinate amount of time and effort in getting to know the individuals on the management team.  In some cases, investments are approved on the condition that certain “holes” in the team are filled prior to, or in conjunction with, the closing of the deal.   Continue reading

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How Facebook Could Be Worth $200 Billion+

With LinkedIn and RenRen filing to go public, it seems the chatter at every social event I attend these days turns to what Facebook could be worth.  Facebook has had a stellar valuation trajectory – from having raised $12.7 Million at a $100 Million valuation in April 2005, to raising $500 Million from Goldman Sachs and DST at a $50 Billion valuation in January 2011.  That’s a 500-fold increase in valuation in less than six years.  Wow.  Is there further upside?  I think there is.

Getting to a $100 Billion Valuation for Facebook

Facebook has about 650 Million users, and is forecasted to achieved $3.2B in 2011 revenues, which translates to about $5 per user per year.  Assuming a normalized 35% EBITDA margin, a $50 Billion valuation for Facebook represents about a 45x normalized EBITDA multiple:

  • Revenues:                                         $3.2 Billion
  • Normalized EBITDA  (@35%):      $1.1 Billion
  • Multiple:                                            45x
  • Market Cap:                                      $50 Billion

Going forward, if we assume that Facebook can get to 1 Billion users and monetize at $10 per user per year,  at 35% normalized EBITDA margins, we get to a $100 Billion valuation for the company, assuming a more modest 30x (normalized) EBITDA multiple.  Given that Google is currently monetizing at roughly $20 per user per year, this does not appear implausible.

  • Revenues:                                       $10 Billion
  • Normalized EBITDA  (@35%):    $3.5 Billion
  • Multiple:                                          30x
  • Market Cap:                                    $100 Billion

You Know What’s Even Cooler? $200 Billion! Continue reading

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Three Habits of Highly Successful Investors

Harvard Business Review came out with a very nice piece around “Nine Things Successful People Do Differently.” Some of the habits are more obvious than others.  For instance, the article extols the virtues of getting specific about your goals, being realistic, being incremental, possessing fortitude, and maintaining focus on your objectives.  Most of it sounds like common sense although, admittedly, common sense is not as common as we’d all like to believe. The article proffers some good life-lessons that are generally relevant and applicable to all of us.  At the same time, reading the article encouraged me to relate it to what I do and the defining traits of successful investors.  Based on my experiences, there are three traits that successful investors appear to share.

1. Optimism

It is hard to be a (long) investor unless you are optimistic.  Whether you are a growth-oriented investor or a value-oriented investor chasing “fixer-upper” companies, your investment thesis is, by definition, grounded in optimism around the company’s future prospects and your ability to drive positive returns.

2. Curiosity

Most good investors strike me as tremendously curious individuals.  They are always asking “why” and have an insatiable thirst for knowledge.  An investor’s “Alpha” derives from his or her unique “edge.”  An investor’s ability to cultivate this edge usually derives from a proprietary view on a market or security, which, in turn, usually stems from an innate propensity to soak up new information and to perpetually challenge, calibrate, and confirm key assumptions. Continue reading

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Introduction

Welcome to my blog.  In this blog I will cover areas related to my personal and professional interests.  I am passionate about technology, innovation and investing and spend much of my time finding, evaluating, and advising companies within the technology, software, Internet, mobile, tech-enabled services, and digital media sectors.

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